Gonzalo Vargas's blog

Minería en Colombia II

Sat, 25 May 2013 20:00:29 -0400

¿Evaden el pago de regalías las empresas mineras? Sí, responde el director de la DIAN en una entrevista con el diario económico Portafolio e indica explícitamente que se trata de un caso de corrupción. ¿No debería informar a la Fiscalía?

'Minería en Colombia: Fundamentos para superar el modelo extractivista'

Sat, 18 May 2013 20:56:00 -0400

Muy interesante el estudio sobre Minería en Colombia (clic para descargar PDF) publicado por la Contraloría General de la República hace unos días y editado por Luis Jorge Garay.

Particularmente interesante el capítulo a cargo de Mauricio Cabrera y Julio Fierro, quienes ofrecen impactantes estadísticas sobre la huella ambiental de la minería, por ejemplo, un megaproyecto minero produce entre 10 y 70 veces más desechos al año que una ciudad como Bogotá. También alertan sobre la debilidad de instrumentos como las licencias ambientales.

También interesante e ilustrado con abundante evidencia el capítulo de Guillermo Rudas y Jorge Espitia, que examinan la participación del Estado colombiano en la renta minera y encuentran que a pesar de que las tasas nominales de tributación en Colombia son parecidas a las de otros países, la proporción entre ingresos fiscales y valor agregado del sector está entre las más bajas del continente (ver gráfico).

Fuente: Rudas & Espitia (2013: 144).

El capítulo final, a cargo de Luis Alvaro Pardo, ofrece un recorrido histórico sobre la regulación minera y hace una serie de propuestas de reforma institucional. Teniendo en cuenta los hallazgos de los autores, no sorprende la reacción del gremio (clic para descargar PDF), que ha prometido un contraestudio para rebatir los argumentos de Garay y colegas.

'Economics versus Politics' by Acemoglu & Robinson

Mon, 13 May 2013 23:01:00 -0400

Addressing market failures may be bad for society: it may worsen inequality and weaken the state, argue Acemoglu & Robinson in the latest issue of the Journal of Economic Perspectives (click for PDF). Even when market reforms increase efficiency they can also weaken organisations that promote democracy and equality (e.g. labour unions) and give industries the political leverage to push forward reforms with dubious benefits for society (e.g. banks). Furthermore, they can hamper a government’s ability to maintain political stability and thus lead to social and political unrest. Russia privatisation and Sierra Leone’s war provide some of the vignettes that illustrate their argument. ‘Economic policy should not just focus on removing market failures and correcting distortions […] its implications for future political equilibria should be factored in’ they conclude. Not sure this is a very novel argument as they claim but still it’s a point worth making—perhaps economics undergraduates should take a few compulsory courses on politics?

"Nine Facts about Top Journals in Economics How has publishing in top economics journals changed..."

Tue, 19 Mar 2013 11:30:00 -0400

“

Nine Facts about Top Journals in Economics

How has publishing in top economics journals changed since 1970? Using a data set that combines information on all articles published in the top-five journals from 1970 to 2012 with their Google Scholar citations, we identify nine key trends. First, annual submissions to the top-five journals nearly doubled from 1990 to 2012. Second, the total number of articles published in these journals actually declined from 400 per year in the late 1970s to 300 per year most recently. As a result, the acceptance rate has fallen from 15 percent to 6 percent, with potential implications for the career progression of young scholars. Third, one journal, the American Economic Review, now accounts for 40 percent of top-five publications, up from 25 percent in the 1970s. Fourth, recently published papers are on average three times longer than they were in the 1970s, contributing to the relative shortage of journal space. Fifth, the number of authors per paper has increased from 1.3 in 1970 to 2.3 in 2012, partly offsetting the fall in the number of articles per year. Sixth, citations for top-five publications are high: among papers published in the late 1990s, the median number of Google Scholar citations is 200. Seventh, the ranking of journals by citations has remained relatively stable, with the notable exception of the Quarterly Journal of Economics, which climbed from fourth place to first place over the past three decades. Eighth, citation counts are significantly higher for longer papers and those written by more coauthors. Ninth, although the fraction of articles from different fields published in the top five has remained relatively stable, there are important cohort trends in the citations received by papers from different fields, with rising citations to more recent papers in Development and International, and declining citations to recent papers in Econometrics and Theory.

”

- Card, David, and Stefano DellaVigna. 2013. “Nine Facts about Top Journals in Economics.” Journal of Economic Literature 51(1): 144-61.

http://www.aeaweb.org/atypon.php?return_to=/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jel.51.1.144&etoc=1

Comprender Mali, resolver Mali

Mon, 04 Feb 2013 19:48:03 -0500

Los Tuareg han habitado el Sahara desde el siglo IV y durante el siglo XX organizaron varios levantamientos armados, primero contra Francia y luego contra Niger y Mali, para independizarse y formar su propio estado-nación, conocido como Azawad. La más reciente rebelión, lanzada el año pasado, agrupa a cuatro organizaciones armadas aliadas desde el punto de vista militar pero divididas en cuanto a su visión de la naturaleza secular o islámica del estado que pretenden constituir. El rápido avance de los rebeldes tomó por sorpresa al gobierno de Mali y propició el golpe de estado de marzo de 2012 (organizado por militares frustrados ante la débil respuesta política y militar del presidente Touré), así como la reciente intervención francesa.

La explicación a la crisis más escuchada en las últimas semanas es que la rebelión es una nueva manifestación del ‘choque de civilizaciones’ augurado por Huntington. Esta teoría ofrece pistas sobre las raíces históricas del conflicto en Mali pero no encaja del todo con la evidencia: no todos los rebeldes apoyan la idea de crear un estado islámico ni todo el mundo islámico está en abierta confrontación con Occidente. Las variables económicas tampoco dan muchas luces sobre las raíces del conflicto: Mali es un país relativamente pobre—en 2011 su Indice de Desarrollo Humano fue de apenas 0,359 (el de Colombia fue 0,840 en 2010)—pero en los últimos años la economía ha crecido a tasas anuales del 5% con tasas de inflación de un dígito, avances notables en la reducción de la pobreza y volúmenes crecientes de inversión extranjera. A finales de los 1990s, la producción de oro en Mali creció notablemente y hoy ronda el 75% de las exportaciones totales del país. Por supuesto, la abundancia no siempre es una bendición y las economías que dependen de recursos minerales son particularmente propensas a padecer conflictos armados separatistas. Pero este no parece ser el caso de Mali pues los yacimientos auríferos se encuentran al sur del país, lejos de la zona dominada por los Tuareg. Las recientes sequías y los recurrentes conflictos por el uso del suelo entre pastores Tuareg y agricultores de otras etnias también pueden haber jugado un papel catalizador del conflicto pero no explican el rápido avance rebelde de 2012.

La clave de la crisis parece residir en factores políticos e institucionales y, en particular, en la incapacidad del gobierno para acomodar satisfactoriamente las demandas de los Tuareg y para enfrentar las consecuencias de la inestabilidad regional causada por la caída de Gaddafi, a quien los Tuareg apoyaron militarmente hace dos años. Los Tuareg usaron en su avanzada las armas que habían recibido del régimen libio y de esta manera doblegaron rápidamente al ejército de Mali, algunos de cuyos miembros desertaron para unirse a las filas rebeldes. En este contexto el reto de Francia es triple: en primer lugar reagrupar y entrenar a las fuerzas armadas para que mantengan el control territorial sin alienar a los Tuareg; en segundo lugar impulsar una coalición política ‘suficientemente incluyente’ que de a los Tuareg mayor autonomía política y administrativa en el contexto de un estado secular a cambio de cerrar las puertas a las organizaciones islámicas radicales; y en tercer lugar evitar que la crisis contagie a los países vecinos que también albergan minorías Tuareg, como Argelia y Niger. Se trata de un esfuerzo sostenido, que se medirá en términos de años y no de meses, y que requerirá también apoyo técnico y financiero para construir y consolidar un estado viable y legítimo. Buena suerte con eso.

"Historically, the other great antagonistic interaction of Arab Islamic civilization has been the..."

Mon, 28 Jan 2013 10:01:14 -0500

“Historically, the other great antagonistic interaction of Arab Islamic civilization has been the pagan, animist, and now increasingly Christian black people to the south. In the past, this antagonism was epitomized in the image of Arab slave dealers and black slaves. It has been reflected in the on-going civil war in the Sudan between Arabs and blacks, the fighting in Chad between Libyan-supported insurgents and the government, the tensions between Orthodox Christians and Muslims in the Horn of Africa, and the political conflicts, recurring riots and communal violence between Muslim and Christians and Nigeria. The modernization of Africa and the spread of Crhistianity are likely to enhance the probability of violence along this fault line.”

- So… was he right?

Samuel Huntington (1993) The Clash of Civilizations Foreign Affairs summer: 33.

"Rather than characteristics of the war just fought, postwar democratization hinges more on the..."

Fri, 25 Jan 2013 09:54:00 -0500

“Rather than characteristics of the war just fought, postwar democratization hinges more on the economic structures of society, and thus, its determinants are much the same as those of peaceful societies. Economic development generally promotes the growth of democracy, while oil riches hamper it.”

- Virginia Page Fortna and Reyko Huang (2012) ‘Democratization after Civil War: A Brush-Clearing Exercise’ International Studies Quarterly 56, 801–808

"The paradox of the war on drugs is that the harder governments push the fight, the higher drug..."

Thu, 10 Jan 2013 09:59:05 -0500

“The paradox of the war on drugs is that the harder governments push the fight, the higher drug prices become to compensate for the greater risks. That leads to larger profits for traffickers who avoid being punished. This is why larger drug gangs often benefit from a tougher war on drugs, especially if the war mainly targets small-fry dealers and not the major drug gangs. Moreover, to the extent that a more aggressive war on drugs leads dealers to respond with higher levels of violence and corruption, an increase in enforcement can exacerbate the costs imposed on society.”

- Gary Becker & Kevin Murphy ‘Have We Lost the War on Drugs?’ WSJ 04 January 2013

(via Freakonomics)

"Whenever you have to explain something to someone, either in person or on a printed page, you have..."

Tue, 06 Nov 2012 08:24:00 -0500

“Whenever you have to explain something to someone, either in person or on a printed page, you have to think it through more thoroughly than you otherwise would. Preparing a lecture or drafting a textbook chapter reveals holes in your understanding. And, sometimes, as you try to fill these holes, you get ideas for research. Put simply, imparting knowledge and creating knowledge are complimentary [sic] activities. That is why these two forms of production take place in the same firms, called universities.”

- Greg Mankiw’s Blog

Mining in Colombia and Latin America: will the UN Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights improve accountability?

Fri, 02 Nov 2012 12:59:43 -0400

Mining in Colombia and Latin America: will the UN Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights improve accountability?

"All those involved in research should be bound by the principles of scientific integrity. Funders..."

Fri, 26 Oct 2012 19:15:39 -0400

“All those involved in research should be bound by the principles of scientific integrity. Funders are advised to rethink their emphasis on quantity over quality when assessing an applicant’s publication history; journal editors are told to seek out cases of fraud using technology such as plagiarism checkers; publishers are encouraged to ensure that retracted articles are easily visible and cease to be cited; and peer reviewers are reminded of their responsibility to voice ethical concerns and to declare their own conflicts of interest candidly. Institutes are also considered to have a vital role in raising the standards of research integrity—it is their duty to educate staff in ethical research practices, and to facilitate a supportive and effective environment for whistleblowers.”

- Promoting research integrity: a new global effort
The Lancet
The Lancet - 27 October 2012 ( Vol. 380, Issue 9852, Page 1445 )

Me acabo de enterar de que en español las expresiones...

Wed, 24 Oct 2012 14:56:12 -0400

Me acabo de enterar de que en español las expresiones ‘hace un rato’, ‘ahora’ y ‘más tarde’ son sinónimos, como lo indica la imagen que aparece arriba, tomada del Diccionario de la Real Academia. Es decir que las 7.00, las 7.10 y las 7.20 son lo mismo!

In case you didn’t know, in Spanish ‘now’, ‘later’ and ‘a while ago’ are the same thing. The image above was taken from the online edition of the Spanish Royal Academy of Language -yes, there is such thing- and it clearly shows that ‘now’ is not actually now. Now begun sometime ago and will end sometime in the near future. Ha! This explains a lot!

New citing tool from Google- now there’s no excuse for...

Fri, 19 Oct 2012 22:13:14 -0400

New citing tool from Google- now there’s no excuse for poor reference formatting!

Does economic growth end?

Tue, 02 Oct 2012 16:30:13 -0400

Does economic growth end?:

This interesting paper by Robert J. Gordon ’raises basic questions about the process of economic growth. It questions the assumption, nearly universal since Solow’s seminal contributions of the 1950s, that economic growth is a continuous process that will persist forever. There was virtually no growth before 1750, and thus there is no guarantee that growth will continue indefinitely. Rather, the paper suggests that the rapid progress made over the past 250 years could well turn out to be a unique episode in human history.’

Gordon (2012) ‘Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds’ NBER Working Paper No. 18315

"The real Rule of Law is substantive and encompasses many human rights requirements. It reflects the..."

Sat, 29 Sep 2012 10:40:47 -0400

“

The real Rule of Law is substantive and encompasses many human rights requirements. It reflects the idea of equality in a substantive way: not just that no one is above the law, but that everyone is equal before and under the law, and is entitled to its equal protection and equal benefit.

Only this understanding of the Rule of Law would prevent a law being enacted to regulate the use of torture, for example. Under this substantive understanding of the rule of the law that would be impossible — no matter how well promulgated that law were, nor how equitably it were enforced. Properly understood in this fashion, the Rule of Law would also prohibit the enactment of a law that would deprive women of the right to vote, or otherwise offend fundamental human rights guarantees.

Under this substantive understanding of the Rule of Law, rules serve a higher purpose than the mere orderly regulation of human conduct; laws must also enhance liberty, security and equality and strive to attain a perfect coincidence between law and justice.

This is a tall agenda both at the national and the international level, but it is the one that the Rule of Law commands. It requires that laws be just, and justly enforced.

”

- A statement by Louise Arbour, President & CEO of the International Crisis Group, on the occasion of the High-level Meeting of the 67th Session of the General Assembly on the Rule of Law (via crisisgroup)

Interesting post on collaboration between academics and NGOs in...

Fri, 28 Sep 2012 07:32:00 -0400

Interesting post on collaboration between academics and NGOs in international development. Clic above to continue reading.

Photo

Mon, 24 Sep 2012 18:57:00 -0400

arinacretu: A developed country is not a place where the poor...

Wed, 19 Sep 2012 16:13:52 -0400

arinacretu:

A developed country is not a place where the poor have cars. It’s where the rich use public transportation.

- Gustavo Petro, Mayor of Bogotá

The mysterious case of the developmental US troop deployments

Fri, 14 Sep 2012 18:41:00 -0400

In the latest issue of Foreign Policy Analysis, Tim Kane makes the puzzling and controversial claim that US troop deployments have a developmental impact. More specifically, he claims that ‘countries with a heavy US troop presence had faster increases in life expectancy, faster reduction in rates of child mortality and faster development development of telephones lines per capita’ (2012: 269). The claim is backed by several regressions, that cover the period 1970-today, which apparently show robust correlations, even after controlling by variables such as GDP growth and trade. The author proposes three causal mechanisms: peacekeeping, investment stability and infrastructure. So don’t be surprised if you hear Bill & Melinda have reallocated their aid budget to fund the deployment of US troops to the poorest countries in the planet.

Yet, there are reasons to be cautious with Kane’s analysis. In particular, his results may suffer from ‘omitted variable bias’, which occurs when relevant independent (explanatory) variables are not included the analysis. Kane uses exactly the same model (with the same independent and control variables) to explain three different dependent variables, as if it were reasonable to expect that the three of them had the same determinants. Furthermore, a cursory look at existing research on the determinants of child mortality would show that access to electricity, incomes, vaccination in the first year of birth, and public health expenditure ‘significantly reduce child mortality’ (Wang 2003). Kind of obvious—really. Similarly, long term increases in life expectancy seem to be associated to improvements in access to potable water, sanitation and immunization programs (Soares 2009). The determinants of investment in telecommunications have probably changed a lot over the last two decades, from fiscal surpluses (before the Washington Consensus) to an institutional environment favourable to FDI (especially after the advent of mobile technology, dominated by MNCs). However, these variables were all omitted in Kane’s regressions—hence the bias and the chance that his results may be spurious.

To be sure, Kane’s hypotheses are not far-fetched; for instance, peacekeeping troops may create a favourable climate for growth, investment and foreign aid, thus creating a positive long-term effect on child mortality, life expectancy and infrastructure. But that is not the model he ran. Thus, rather than a breakthrough in development studies, we may have read a textbook case of econometric misspecification. So, Bill & Melinda, I humbly advise you, please put those chequebooks back in your purses.

References

Kane (2012) ‘Development and US Troop Deployments’ Foreign Policy Analysis 8(3): 255-73.

Soares (2009) ‘Life expectancy and welfare in Latin America and the Caribbean’ Health Economics 18(1): S37-54.

Wang (2003) ‘Determinants of child mortality in LDCs: Empirical findings from demographic and health surveys’ Health Policy 65(3): 277-99.

"A new global compact should focus more directly on rich countries’ responsibilities. Second, it..."

Wed, 12 Sep 2012 17:03:00 -0400

“A new global compact should focus more directly on rich countries’ responsibilities. Second, it should emphasize policies beyond aid and trade that have an equal, if not greater, impact on poor countries’ development prospects. A short list of such policies would include: carbon taxes and other measures to ameliorate climate change; more work visas to allow larger temporary migration flows from poor countries; strict controls on arms sales to developing nations; reduced support for repressive regimes; and improved sharing of financial information to reduce money laundering and tax avoidance.”

- Danny Rodrik ‘After the Millennium Development Goals’ @ Project Syndicate